From CNN Money/Fortune today:
NEW YORK (Fortune) — Ask a group of oil analysts about the recent surge in crude costs and here’s the consensus answer you’ll get: Prices have run up too far, too fast and they aren’t supported by the fundamentals.
Ask them about where prices will be two years from now, however, and the majority will offer this prediction: A lot higher.
“We’re concerned about oil prices rising so rapidly in the near-term,” says Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley. “But the bet in the long-term is one way, and that’s just up.”
In the long term, as the economy recovers, demand is growing faster than supply. This means prices will climb, speculators or not. And it will happen sooner and faster than most people are prepared for.